|Index & Notes|
Moore's Law taken backwards to 19th century
The "every year" got changed to "every 18 months" just years later, and now is often stated as "every two years" as the final physical diminishing returns are felt. We're now down to 45 nanometres, and at 30, physicists tell us that electrons will start quantum tunneling between elements no matter how high the resistivity of the substrate. We'll see - since predictions of the Law's death have been often exaggerated. This interesting treatment takes Moore's Law back before electronics to conclude that it holds backwards into the era of electromechanical calculators in 1900.
© Roy Brander, P.Eng 2007