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Estimation of Mini-Laptop Hitting $200

If my thesis is correct, customers will mostly let Moore's Law improve the specs of the mini-laptop they decide to buy and only slowly push the price down towards $200. But to give the process a head start, I'm going to assume the $400 I paid was an early-adopter gouge and that they'll be selling for $300 next year, because the story goes that they are already $250 in Japan. But at a rate of halving per 10 years, it'll be 2013 before $200 minis become the popular buy. Don't forget, however, that almost as many consumer electronics pundits think $300 is already the appliance price - so all through those years, the mini will be gaining soaring market share.

© Roy Brander, P.Eng 2007